lesson 3

33問 • 1年前

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It is an art and science of predicting future events. may involve taking historical data and projecting them into the future with some sort of mathematical model

forecasting

it is a mathematical model adjusted by a manager’s good judgment. effective planning in both the short and long run depends on a forecast of demand for the company’s products or services.

forecasting

features common to all forecast and elements of a good forecast The forecast should be blank The forecast should be blank and the degree of accuracy should be stated. The forecast should be blank it should work consistently. The forecast should be blank

timely, accurate, reliable, expressed in meaningful units

It addresses the business cycle by predicting inflation rates, money suppliers, housing starts, and other planning indicators.

economic forecasts

These are concerned with rates of technological progress, which can result in the birth of exciting new products, requiring new plants and equipment's.

technological forecasts

These are projections of demand for a company’s products or service. These are forecasts , also called sales forecasts, drive a company’s production, capacity, and scheduling systems and serve as inputs to financial, marketing, and personnel planning.

demand forecasts

The forecast is the only estimate of demand until actual demand becomes known. Forecasts of demand therefore drives decision in many areas.

the strategic importance of forecasting

Hiring, training, and laying off workers all depends on anticipated demand. If the human resource department must hire additional workers without warning, the amount of training declines and the quality of the workforce suffers.

human resources

is inadequate, the resulting shortages can mean undependable delivery, loss of customers, and loss of market share.

capacity

Good supplier relations and the ensuring price advantages for materials and parts depends on accurate forecasts.

supply chain management

Disney uses park attendance forecasts to drive staffing, opening time, ride availability, and food suppliers.

determine the use of the forecast

For Disney World, there are six main parks. A forecast of daily attendance at each is the main number that determines labor, maintenance, and scheduling.

select the item to be forecasted

is it short, medium, or long term? Disney develops daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and 5-year forecast.

determine the time horizon of the forecast

Disney uses a variety of statistical models like, including moving averages, econometrics, and regression analysis. It also employs judgmental, or nonquantitative, models.

select the forecasting model

Disney’s forecasting team employs 35 analysts and 70 field personnel to survey 1 million people/businesses every year. It also uses the firm called Global Insight for travel industry forecasts and gathers data on exchange rates, arrivals into the U.S., airline specials, Wall Street trends, and school vacation schedules.

gather the data needed to make the forecast

At Disney, forecasts are reviewed daily at the highest levels to make sure that the model, assumptions, and data are valid. Error measures are applied; then the forecasts are used to schedule personnel down to 15-minutes intervals.

validate and implement the result

of forecasting exclude expert opinions and utilize statistical data based on quantitative information. forecasting models include time series methods, discounting, analysis of leading or lagging indicators, and econometric.

quantitative methods

accounts for the fact that data points taken over time may have an internal structure (such as autocorrelation, trend or seasonal variation) that should be accounted for.

time series analysis

is the process of determining the present value of a payment or a stream of payments that is to be received in the future.

discounting

measure change. They deal with immediate progress and show the likelihood that you will achieve your goals

leading indicators

measure results. This means they are the direct result or output of your organization’s activity. It makes lagging indicators easy to measure but not as easy to improve or influence.

lagging indicators

is the application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical content to economic relationships

econometrics

Constant growth rate

straight line

Repeated forecasts

moving average

Compare one independent with one dependent variable

simple linear regression

Compare more than one independent variable with one dependent variable

multiple linear regression

DELPHI METHOD •To overcome the limitation of above method, a committee is formed. •A moderator creates a questionnaire & distributes to the participants. The identity of committee members is concealed. •Their responses are summed up. •A new set of questions is prepared.

qualitative method

Judgment based on experience & intuition to estimate a sales forecast (by one person) Used for short term forecast when cost of forecast inaccuracy is low. Such forecasts have to be made very frequently.

educated guess

Suitable when a company has few customers e.g. Automobile/defense contractors. Estimates are gathered from customers directly.

survey of customers

Forecast made by a committee of knowledge executive from different departments. Such forecast are compromise forecast not reflecting the extremes. People from a lower level may not speak freely to refute the estimates of people saving above them.

executive commitee consensus

Used for existing product when salespeople sell directly to customers & a good communication system exists in an organization. Estimates of future regional sales are obtained from sales people. These are refined by managers & total sales for all regions is estimated on its behalf.

survey of sales force

Suitable for new products or introduction of exiting product in new market segments. Then mail, questionnaires, surveys, telephone interviews- hypothesis is tested.

market research

For a new product a generic or existing product is used as a model. The analogies may be complementary product/substitutes. Knowledge of one product sales during various stages of its product life cycle is applied to the estimate of sales for a similar product.

historical analogy