6 Forecasting

36問 • 1年前

問題一覧

Is the projection of future sales, revenues, earnings, costs, and other possible variables that are helpful in the firm's operation

forecasting

To reduce the risk or uncertainty that the firm will face in making a decision

objective of forecasting

User of forecast

top management production manager purchasing manager marketing manager finance manager human resource manager colleges and universities

Are generally used in forecasting when data, necessary to use time series or causal model, are not available

qualitative methods of forecasting

Qualitative models of forecasting

delphi market research salesforce opinion, judgement or grassroot forecast historical analogy

Experts panel respond to a series of questionnaires. They have access to all information

delphi

Range of forecast: delphi

long range

Range of forecast: market research

short or medium range

Range of forecast: salesforce opinion, judgement or grassroot forecast

short range

Range of forecast: historical analogy

long range

Relative cost: delphi

medium

Relative cost: market research

low

Relative cost: historical analogy

low to medium

Relative cost: salesforce opinion, judgement or grassroot forecast

low

Time to forecast: delphi

high

Use of survey questionnaire for testing the hypothesis regarding consumer behavior

market research

Time to forecast: market research

high

Life cycle of similar products or services are compared.

historical analogy

Demand pattern for each stage of life cycle as assumed to be analogous for comparable

historical analogy

Time to forecast: historical analogy

quick

Projection of estimates by grassroot level people like salesforce who are close to consumers

salesforce opinion, judgement or grassroot forecast

Time to forecast: salesforce opinion, judgement or grassroot forecast

quick and frequent

Application: new product and new technology

delphi

Application: new product, references of consumers, pre-poll forecast

market research

Application: new products and new series

historical analogy

Application: estimate of medicine of a particular type or government contract which may be procured

salesforce opinion, judgement or grassroot forecast

Accuracy: delphi

fair to good

Accuracy: market research

excellent in short ranges. fair in long term range.

Accuracy: historical analogy

poor to fair

Accuracy: salesforce opinion, judgement or grassroot forecast

fair to poor

Models of time series analysis

simple moving average weighted moving average exponential smoothing

How to solve for simple moving average 3 week

start with the first three weeks and add all of those divide the sum with three and you get the forecast for the fourth week

How to get the weighted moving average 3 week

start with the three week in descending order, following the three weighted average just starting from big to small multiply it with their respective weighted moving averages and add all the three week averages

How to get exponential smoothing

start with the second week by copying the sales of the first week get the alpha and multiply it with the second week sale get the alpha again and solve it by 1 - alpha then multiply it by the forecast of the second week add both of the numbers and get the forecast for the third week

How to get the mean absolute deviation

u minus the forecast from the sales to get the error after getting the error of all the weeks add it all up and divide it with the number of weeks with forecasts

How to compute for mean square error

square the amount in the error column or mad and divide it with the number of weeks with forecasts

Business Finance

Sab Sescon · 46問 · 2年前

Business Finance